Ukraine's decision to resume attacks on Russian oil refineries has added uncertainty to fuel markets, a week after Washington eased sanctions on Moscow in exchange for larger diesel shipments. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Kyiv's pause on such strikes was "done", saying Russia had ignored an energy ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump. He travelled to Brussels this week to seek backing from European leaders ahead of an EU summit on Friday.

The timing matters to traders. The sanctions relief was meant to ease supply, and the Kremlin said Russia had restarted diesel exports under the arrangement. Russian authorities then reported a drone attack on a refinery south of Moscow that started a fire. Russia is a major exporter of diesel, so damage to its processing plants hits that fuel more directly than it hits crude oil.

Refinery strikes tend to show up first in diesel prices and refining margins. Crude remains available, but the output of finished fuel falls. If the attacks continue at pace, they could cancel out the extra supply the US deal was intended to release. The extent of the damage at Russian sites has not been confirmed, and the scale of any price move will depend on it.

Mr Trump called the renewed attacks a "disgrace" and said Kyiv was pushing up global energy prices. In an interview with Newsmax published on Thursday, he said he found Mr Zelenskyy harder to deal with than President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin took a similar line, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying Ukraine's strikes were in serious conflict with American peace efforts.

Diesel underpins freight, farming, construction and public transport in nearly every economy, so a sustained rise spreads quickly into the cost of goods. Europe, which has relied on imported diesel since it restricted Russian supplies, is exposed to any tightening in the global market. Importing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, where governments often subsidise fuel, face pressure on public budgets if prices climb.

In Britain, the effect would arrive through the pump and through the supply chain. Retail fuel prices generally follow wholesale costs with a lag of a couple of weeks, which means any shift in diesel markets this week could reach forecourts by the start of November. Diesel already costs more per litre than petrol in the UK, and millions of vans, lorries, buses and cars run on it. Haulage firms and bus operators typically pass higher fuel bills on to customers, and supermarkets and retailers do the same with delivery costs. That adds to inflation figures the Bank of England watches closely when setting interest rates.

For private motorists, the immediate question is whether wholesale diesel keeps rising or settles once the market judges the scale of the refinery damage. Drivers of petrol cars would be affected less, though crude prices usually move in the same direction as diesel, if by a smaller amount.

The dispute has a military side that could shape how long the energy attacks continue. Ukrainian forces rely on the Starshield satellite system to detect incoming strikes and coordinate their response, and it has suffered outages this week. Defence officials confirmed that the US had threatened to withdraw intelligence sharing if Ukraine kept up long-range strikes on refineries. Elon Musk said SpaceX was not responsible for the disruption and that the US government controls the system, with any limits set by the military. Mr Zelenskyy said Russia was exploiting the problems with satellite services to hit Ukrainian energy sites, including a drone strike on the city of Lutsk that caused blackouts.

European leaders have offered Kyiv public support. President Emmanuel Macron said Ukraine must receive "all the means necessary to protect itself", and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote that Ukraine was not alone. Mr Zelenskyy also met NATO chief Mark Rutte in Brussels.

Markets will now watch three developments, namely whether Washington restores sanctions pressure on Moscow, whether Kyiv keeps hitting refineries, and whether Russian diesel exports continue at the higher level the Kremlin described. Each will help determine what UK drivers and businesses pay in the coming weeks.

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