A new study published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology projects a significant surge in glaucoma cases across the UK, predicting that 1.6 million people will be affected by 2060. This represents a 60% increase from the current estimated figure of 1.1 million adults living with the condition. The rise is primarily driven by an ageing population and shifting ethnic demographics. Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness, making this dramatic projection a major concern for public health.
The research team, led by Professor Paul Foster at University College London and Moorfields Eye Hospital, currently estimates that around 3% of people over 40 and 11% of those over 85 have glaucoma. The new projections are based on robust Office for National Statistics data and factor in both demographic ageing and the increasing proportion of high-risk ethnic groups. Experts are calling this a "demographic timebomb," warning that the projected rise will likely overwhelm current eye health services, leading to greater demand for ophthalmology appointments, specialist care, and treatments.
Glaucoma poses a grave threat because of its silent progression. The disease typically has no symptoms in its early stages, meaning many people are unaware they are affected until substantial, irreversible vision loss has occurred. This contributes to high rates of preventable blindness. Worryingly, experts warn that more than half a million people in the UK may currently be at risk of vision loss simply because their glaucoma remains undiagnosed. Delayed diagnosis not only causes avoidable sight loss but also escalates the long-term burden on health and social care systems. The research also highlights disparities, noting that people from African and other high-risk ethnic groups are disproportionately affected and more likely to receive a late diagnosis.
To prevent a future crisis in eye care, public health advocates and professionals stress the need for strategic long-term planning. This must include: greater investment in service expansion, reconfiguration, and specialist workforce capacity; emphasising the importance of regular annual eye tests for people over the age of 40 for early detection; targeted awareness campaigns to close care gaps for high-risk ethnic groups; and adopting technological innovations like AI-assisted diagnostics and tele-ophthalmology to boost clinical capacity. This surge in glaucoma cases comes against a backdrop of wider eye health challenges, with conditions like age-related macular degeneration and cataracts also set to increase. Health leaders are urged to integrate eye-care planning into broader workforce and service delivery strategies now to avoid higher rates of avoidable vision loss and the associated personal, social, and economic costs
